CBS 21 Community

September 1, 2008

Dear Mr Chen,

Thank you for your email. My chief forwarded me your message. After reading through it, I would like to make following comments for your reference, and exchange of viewpoints.

First of all, I fully respect what you are doing, and to some extent understand what you are saying. Since natural disasters like earthquakes, tropical cyclones and tsunami are difficult to forecast, many people including many scientists have been devoting their lifetime to explore methods and techniques to do so. It is very encouraging to know you are the one of them.

Before I came to Geneva, I used to be one of the 33 members of Natural Disaster Prediction Committee of the China Geophysical Association. I knew many devoted people like your teacher and you in China. However, as a scientist and/or technologist, your methods and techniques must be explicable and understandable by others, at least by other scientists and highly educated people. Furthermore, your techniques/methods may need as I can see to satisfy at least the following prerequisites:

1) Philosophical justification;
2) Solid scientific/physical ground (on currently recognized science and technology);
3) Logic consistence (in developing your techniques.methods);
4) Practical application/viability (i.e. people can learn and apply your techniques/methods for their own prediction/forecasting).

Judged by the above four requirements, I guess it is currently difficult to disseminate your techniques/methods to other people, even if you like to do so. Science should not be covered by any inexplicable rules that make people wander around.

In <<Yi Jing>>, there is a saying in Chinese "天行健, 君子以自强不息;地势坤, 君子以厚德载物", roughly interpreted as that a true and responsible man should uninterruptedly explore secret mechanism of the mother nature, and serve all people to avoid possible danger from unfavourable conditions (like disasters) of the nature. Even the ancient Chinese people can do that well, why not the people like us today disseminate what you have to the general people?

Finally, I would advise you that you would better not say anything mysterious in science and technology communities.

September 3

Original version:

我们的回复
尊敬的彭先生，

非常谢谢您给我的回复，作为我的观点，阐述如下：

第一：从客观的角度上谈论云峰老师，我可以列出如下事实。从个人命运、官运预测的范围来说，有如下几个典型 例子“邻居出事的预言”，“对于仕途升迁的预言”，“对王先生出国的预言”，“对人生前途的预言”！从地球 灾害上来说，更有目前美国正在闹着恐慌的“飓风”，“中国512汶川地震”，“地震过后洪水 以及暴雨现象”，“06年usa5月大停电”，另有各个领域预测预言若干。

第二：统计学是一门学问，如果用它来统计云峰老师预言预测的成功率，那我验证下来的预言，准确 率是达到10 0%！以前的预测和预言自有其公开的博客，以及证人来证明！云峰的朋友们说过：“云峰的方式方法远远超过其 他科学家”。作为一个普通人来说，只要是能做出对人类有益的事情，那就不要管这个人是啥身份，啥光环（这个 家，那个家）。从一个人的言行能看出这个人的作为。云峰他不图名利，不需要任何光环。他是一个 真正的“隐士”。

第三：云峰老师的《预测学》已经整理完成。我陈健用爱心来传扬云峰，来发每一个帖子，每一个邮件。我的目的 是为了让世界各国知道云峰，以后有特大灾难来临时，云峰的预言能够起到最大的作用。我是一个有上进心和慈善 心的中国留学生，云峰告诉过我特殊的方法，我感知到了，之后全世界就有很多洪水发生。这件事不 能用email和电话。太多东西了，我无法用文字全部表述出来，您可以与我电话联络。谢谢。

Translated content

Dear Peng,

Thank you for your reply! Below is my viewpoint.
First, I talk about YunFeng objectively and list some fact. There are “the prediction of neighbor have an accident”, “The prediction of official career preferment”, “the big earthquake of China in May 12”, “floodwater and rainstorm after earthquake”, “stop power of USA in May 2006” and so on.

Second, statistics is learning. If I use it and count the mission success rate, then the result is 100%! The forementioned predictions were written in his blog, and they were validated by people. YunFeng’s friends said, “His method is better than other scientist far away.” As a common person, he can do matters what is good for people, and then we shouldn’t care people who he is of what job he does. We may see the talk and action of person, and then figure out his conduct. YunFeng don’t pay attention to the money and power, he also doesn’t need any particular name people give. He is a really anchoret.

Third, YunFeng’s <Theory of Prediction > has done. I spread YunFeng by my Benevolence, and I send every thread and every email. My goal is introduce YunFeng to all over the world for natural disaster. YunFeng will cause the most function because of his prediction. I am an aspirant and beneficent student abroad from China. YunFeng told special method to me and I felt that. After that, the floodwater has happened in the world. This situation cannot be talked with email and phone. There are many matters. I cannot expound those totally. You may contact me with phone. Thank you.

September 3

Original Version:

陈先生,您好!

非常感谢你的回复. 总的感觉是你可能误解我的回函了. 现就你的回复表达一下个人观点, 供参考.

1. 我非常尊重和敬佩那些投毕生精力探索自然奥妙和努力预测天灾事件的人们, 不论他是科学家或普通百姓. 我本人在国内也认识不少这样的人, 也帮助过他们将其成果翻译成英语发表在英文学刊上.

2. 我是本着支持和钦佩的态度来阅读和理解你对云峰老师的预测的介绍. 不要说100%, 对重大自然灾害的预测准确率即便达到50%就已经是震撼世界的奇迹了.

3. 作为一个社会精英分子(我想你是), 我认为你和云峰老师的技术方法应为大部分人能(随时间)理解, 认可和掌握, 并为社会大众服务. 也就是说一个"自强不息"者, 应该有"厚德载物" 的准备和努力及能力, 将你的技术方法转换成大家能理解的语言(我认为应满足我在回函中提到的四个条件)传布/传授给大众, 也就是说知识要大众化才能够为大众所掌握, 并获得大众的支持, 并达到防灾减灾的最佳效果.

4. 顺便说一下供你参考, 统计是事件后分析方法, 用于预测存在不确定性和风险.

5. 请提供你的联系方式, 包括电话和传真. 等方便的时候请教你一些问题.

祝好!
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Dear Mr Chen,

Thank you for your reply! I feel that you misconceive my last mail. According to reply, I deliver individual viewpoint of mine. You can consider that.

1. I respect people who put into whole life to searching nature and predict natural disaster. I don’t care people who are common person or scientist. I met many persons in China and translate their achievement to English and publish their achievement to English journal in the world.
2. I support and respect YunFeng’s prediction. The 50% accurate has shaken the world and the rather that 100%!
3. As an essence of society, YunFeng and you should spread the method to common person. The knowledge should be popular and it will achieve best affection.
4. By the way, the statistics is method by analyzing after matter happens.
5. Please your contact information. It including phone and fax. I will consult some question in the spare time.

Best wishes.